A Limit Texas Hold'em System
Poker and trading have some great parallels. We have applied the same techniques that we use to develop trading
systems to this poker playing system.
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Hypothesis
Online poker players are very loose and will play almost any combination of starting hands. If we play very tight
and disciplined and only bet on hands that have a positive expectancy then we should be able to win in the long run.
Table Selection
This strategy works best with a large table (7-10 players) who are playing very loose (30-40% of the players seeing each
flop) and relatively fast (around 60 hands per hour) with an average pot size of at leat 10 times the big bet. This
provides enough opportunity to make the system worthwhile. If the number of player drops to less than 6 during a session,
then exit immediately.
Position Sizing
It is critical to choose tables that have a fixed small/big blinds (i.e. not pot-limit or no-limit) and not tournament
play (this requires a different strategy).
In order to work out how much to take into a table, and what size big bet table you should be playing, use the following
method:
Always stake no more than 25% of your total bankroll when you join a table. This amount should be equal to at least
50 times the big bet.
For example if you are playing with $100, then you would be taking $25 into a table, that had a big bet of 50c.
Loss Limits and Profit Taking
If you lose 20% of your table starting amount then exit immediately. Use a 20% trailing stop to protect your winnings.
This means your initial total risk at any one 'session' is 5% of your bankroll (20% of 25%, or $5 in this example)
If this seems too risky or conservative to you, then adjust the percentages accordingly.
Betting Strategy
The table below shows the expectancy (in big bets) for different hole cards. First are the pairs, then suited cards,
then unsuited cards. The columns start off at the Small Blind position (SB), then Big Blind (BB) all the way to the
Dealer position (D). The maximum number of players allowed to be in the pot for the expectancy to be correct (where
applicable) is shown in the left column. For example, a pair of fives (55) is only positive expectancy if there are
no more than 6 players in the pot and you are in late position.
Each hand and position is rated according to the following color scheme:
Red - negative expectancy:
Never bet into this hand, only check (if possible) and fold otherwise.
White - low expectancy: Call if you are in late position or the blinds and the pot has not been raised.
Blue - medium expectancy: Bet, or call if there has been one raise.
Green - high expectancy: Raise if there has been a bet,
otherwise bet.
As you can see, this is very tight and disciplined play and you will not be in many hands, but the hands you do play,
you should win quite often (enough to cover the rake and lost blinds).
Contact Us if you use this system and have some fun.
