φ A Medium-Term and Long-Term US Market Perspective
June 9th 2006
Overview
This market perspective is based on the Elliott Wave Principle and represents
a best estimate of the most probable future market direction. For more information regarding Elliott Wave
Principle please see our Elliott Wave International site review here.
Legend
—
Green Line
Trend
(5 waves)
—
Red Line
Correction
(3 waves)
º º
Green or Red Circle
Possible Wave
Terminus
♦
Green Diamond
Wave Terminus
♦
Red Diamond
Wave Terminus
→ →
Green or Red Arrow
Probable Market
Direction
Monthly Commentary June 9th 2006
The close below 1255 on 6/9/6 indicates
a change in the major trend of the monthly chart to down, and that we are probably in Wave 3
of a 5 wave down trend. We have added to our short positions from 5/15/6 and 5/17/6
with an initial trailing stop for this new position at 1288.
Interim Update June 13th 2006
The chart has been changed to show the trend (green) is down
and we are in therefore in Wave 3 of a down trend. We have added to our exiting short positions with
an initial trailing stop for this position at 1286.
Yearly Commentary June 9th 2006
With the change of trend on the monthly chart to down, this would be a good
place to exit any remaining losing long positions on the yearly chart since the risk/reward of this trade is now poor.
We are working on the assumption that Wave 5 of the uptrend that started on 3/12/3 at 804
terminated on 5/8/6. A close below 1233 would indicate a change of the main trend
on the yearly chart to down and would indicate we were in Wave 1 of a 5 wave down trend
rather than Wave A of a 3 wave correction (and would be an excellent place to go short).
Interim Update June 13th 2006
The close of 1223 on 6/13/6 indicates
a change in the yeary trend to down and we are now short on the yearly chart with an initial trailing stop
at 1325. The chart has been changed to show the trend (green) is down and we are in
therefore in Wave 1 of a down trend.
This market perspective is for your information only. Please get professional
advice before risking money on trading or investing using this information. Note that the S&P 500 is a theoretical
index that cannot be directly traded.
