φ A Medium-Term and Long-Term US Market Perspective
August 16th 2006
Overview
This market perspective is based on the Elliott Wave Principle and represents
a best estimate of the most probable future market direction. For more information regarding Elliott Wave
Principle please see our Elliott Wave International site review here.
Legend
—
Green Line
Trend
(5 waves)
—
Red Line
Correction
(3 waves)
º º
Green or Red Circle
Possible Wave
Terminus
♦
Green Diamond
Wave Terminus
♦
Red Diamond
Wave Terminus
→ →
Green or Red Arrow
Probable Market
Direction
Monthly Commentary August 16th 2006
The assumption that we were in Wave 3 of a 5 wave
down trend, with Wave 2 probably terminating on 7/5/6 at 1271 was
invalidated by the close of 1295 on 8/16/6. This means that our existing short positions
are all closed since right now there is approximately equal probability of the market going up to 1325 (a
good long entry point) or down to 1266 (a good short entry point). At this point we are therefore not
in any positions and are awaiting the market to show us which way it wants to go.
Yearly Commentary August 16th 2006
The yearly chart assumptions have not changed and we believe we are in Wave
1 of a 5 wave downtrend with a stop for our short position at 1325.
This market perspective is for your information only. Please get professional
advice before risking money on trading or investing using this information. Note that the S&P 500 is a theoretical
index that cannot be directly traded.
